Hydro’s desire to export power to the U.S. and years of management mistakes are what’s behind the utility’s plan to revive James Bay II, says a leading U.S. energy analyst.

“It seems Quebec took a big gamble and ended up losing,” said Ian Goodman, of the Boston-based Goodman Group.

Hydro has been selling ever increasing amounts of power to New York State and New England. Now, it’s desperate for more water to replenish its reservoirs, which are at dangerously low levels.

“Hydro-Quebec appears to have oversold the province’s energy and they did so at less than what it costs to produce it,” said Goodman, who has worked as a consultant for the Crees.

Hydro’s exports to the United States have nearly tripled since 1990, according to figures from the National Energy Board. Quebec exported 5 terrawatt hours (twh) of power in 1990, almost all to the U.S. This rose to 17 twh in 1995 and fell somewhat to 13.9 twh last year.

Internal Hydro Quebec documents reveal that Quebec’s reservoirs have fallen to 21 per cent of total capacity, according to a report in Le Devoir. Even as water levels fell, Hydro kept boosting its exports, said the newspaper.

Ironically, Quebec will now probably be forced to import energy from its neighbours in order to make it through next winter, said Goodman. Hydro will have to pay far more for this energy than the price it charged itself, Goodman said.

“When Hydro Quebec makes a mistake, the Quebec people pay one way or another, either in higher rates or taxes.”

A battle appears to be brewing within the Quebec government over four other river diversions announced in the Innu territory. Quebec Environment Minister David Cliche said any new hydro projects would be subjected to the same environmental review as any other developer.

But Guy Chevrette, minister in charge of Hydro-Quebec, said deregulation in the energy industry means information about water levels in reservoirs can’t be made public because it would put Hydro at a commercial disadvantage.

The Nation has filed an Access-to-Information request for details about reservoir levels and the Great Whale and Rupert diversion plan.